Alert archive / Minnesota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 816

May 30, 20214 counties in Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2021, 7:57 PM CDT for 4 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 30, 2021, 7:57 PM CDT (00:57 UTC)
Expired
May 30, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Aitkin County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Lake County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2021-05-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2021-05-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1788 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

408 
ACUS11 KWNS 310057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310057 
MNZ000-WIZ000-310200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 310057Z - 310200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms has intensified over northeast MN
this evening.  These storms will move toward the Arrowhead region
with some risk of gusty or locally damaging wind gusts.  No watch is
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has recently intensified over
northeast MN, roughly along a line from northern Aitkin county into
northern St. Louis county MN.  This line of convection is moving
southeastward at around 30 knots.  The environment ahead of the line
is characterized by dewpoints in the lower 50s and MLCAPE values
less than 500 J/kg.  Low level shear is also relatively weak,
suggesting the overall risk of organized severe storms is quite
limited.  Nevertheless, forcing along a cold front and weak
cold-pool generation may result in a few instances of gusty or
locally damaging wind gusts.  The storms should maintain intensity
for only an hour or two, before nocturnal cooling lessens the CAPE
and likely ends the risk.

..Hart/Guyer.. 05/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

LAT...LON   46669371 47669249 47779136 47339104 46699203 46349310
            46469360 46669371

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.