Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 74
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 13, 2021, 8:24 AM CST for 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 13, 2021, 8:24 AM CST (14:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 13, 2021, 11:30 AM CST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Winter mixed precipitation
All 22 counties
Andrews County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Ector County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 529 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 137 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 104 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
917
ACUS11 KWNS 131424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131424
TXZ000-131730-
Mesoscale Discussion 0074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
Areas affected...portions of west-central and southwest Texas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 131424Z - 131730Z
SUMMARY...An area of convectively enhanced winter precipitation has
developed in the Fort Stockton, TX vicinity and will shift
northeastward this morning.
DISCUSSION...An area of elevated convection (evidenced by occasional
lightning) has developed over the past hour or two across elevated
terrain in southwest Texas this morning. The convection was aided
by lift from a compact shortwave trough located over northern
Mexico. This wave was moving southeastward this morning and models
suggest it should stay south of the Rio Grande most of the day. The
convection is rooted atop a very cold, shallow near-surface airmass
which should aid in freezing of precipitation as it reaches the
surface. Local accumulations may exceed 0.05 in/hour where heavier
convective showers occur.
Over time, this band of convection will redevelop east-southeastward
in tandem with the progression of the upstream wave, though some
uncertainty exists with respect to it's longevity. The area of
convection is not particularly well handled in the models so far
this morning (outside of the 00Z European/EC), and it is possible
that the area of precipitation may weaken in the next 1-2 hours.
..Cook/Grams.. 02/13/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31250297 31760311 32360274 32650149 32590063 32330032
31819988 30989992 30220055 29840146 30010219 30590279
31250297Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.