Alert archive / Nevada / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 637

May 16, 2021Eureka County, Lander County, White Pine County, Nevada; Juab County, Tooele County, Utah

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2021, 12:28 PM PDT for Eureka County, Lander County, White Pine County, Nevada; Juab County, Tooele County, Utah. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2021, 12:28 PM PDT (19:28 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2021, 2:00 PM PDT
In force: 92 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Eureka County, NV, Lander County, NV, White Pine County, NV, Juab County, UT, Tooele County, UT

The radar

The Elko radar (KLRX), 185 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Elko, NV (KLKN), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -298 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1439 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 82 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

812 
ACUS11 KWNS 161928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161928 
UTZ000-NVZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Areas affected...central Nevada into western Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 161928Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts or
small hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. A weather
watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...12z RAOBS and latest WV imagery placed the center of a
570 dm upper-low near the southern border of Nevada and California.
Deep ascent from the upper low and the -20 C cold pocket aloft have
overspread surface dewpoints of 40-45 F across much of central
Nevada and Utah. With the subsequent steep mid-level lapse rates
weak buoyancy, on the order of 500 J/kg, has developed and will
support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Deep-layer shear is weak with model soundings and VWPs showing less
than 30 kts. This should limit storm organization to a few stronger
multi cells capable of damaging wind gusts. Small hail may also be
possible given the very cold temperatures aloft. The limited storm
organization should negate the need for a weather watch though
trends will be monitored.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   41411419 41521299 41261241 40981218 40661210 40321206
            39801220 39551262 38971456 38601590 38531649 38491719
            38951757 39371770 39891756 40361728 40671679 41211497
            41411419

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nevada, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Utah, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.