Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 583
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2021, 6:07 PM EDT for 11 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2021, 6:07 PM EDT (22:07 UTC)
- Expired
- May 10, 2021, 7:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 163
Counties Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Wake County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1414 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -27 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 607 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 235 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 235 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.6
- Supercell composite
- 7.9
The text
As transmitted.
981
ACUS11 KWNS 102207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102207
NCZ000-102300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0507 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central and east-central North Carolina
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163...
Valid 102207Z - 102300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
for the next few hours across portions of central and east-central
North Carolina.
DISCUSSION...Storms along and near a cold front moving through North
Carolina have produced occasional large hail and damaging wind gusts
thus far. Expect this isolated threat to continue for a few more
hours before instability decreases further after sunset. A dearth of
moisture has limited MLCAPE to around 500 to 750 J/kg in the region,
but strong shear has allowed for enough storm organization for some
stronger convection and a few supercell structures. The primary
limiting factor to a greater severe threat is the rapid southward
movement of the cold front which has undercut many updrafts thus
far. This continued southward movement of the cold front and a
cooling boundary layer after sunset should limit the severe weather
threat by late evening with a few damaging wind gusts and isolated
large hail possible in the next few hours.
..Bentley.. 05/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...
LAT...LON 35787927 36117831 36167753 35927702 35637700 35167748
35047800 35507906 35787927SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 12:51 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Camden, Carteret and 46 more | 114 min |
| May 10, 3:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Beaufort, Chatham, Craven, Cumberland, Davidson and 25 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.