Mesoscale Discussion 569

Issued

May 9, 2021, 12:31 PM MDT (18:31 UTC)

Expired

May 9, 2021, 3:00 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Las Animas County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Taos County, NM, Union County, NM

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

800 
ACUS11 KWNS 091832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091831 
TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-092100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...far southeast Colorado...and
the far western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091831Z - 092100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across northeast New Mexico and
far southeast Colorado over the next few hours will pose a threat
for damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. This threat will
remain isolated, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A deepening cluster of cumulus within a post
cold-frontal upslope flow regime across north/northeastern NM is
noted in recent GOES imagery. A few lightning strikes have been
noted in the past hour with transient convective cells, hinting that
more robust convection is possible in the next 1-2 hours. Across the
high Plains to the east, temperatures are gradually warming into the
low 60s amid partly cloudy skies. Cool temperatures aloft atop the
warming boundary-layer are steepening low-level lapse rates to 7-9
C/km, and this trend should continue with eastward extent through
the late afternoon. Although instability will remain somewhat
limited due to minimal low-level moisture (only around 500 J/kg
MLCAPE is expected), 30-45 knot effective bulk shear magnitudes may
support some storm organization and an isolated hail threat adjacent
to the higher terrain. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, strong
downburst winds appear to be the more likely hazard. In general, the
localized forcing for ascent and limited instability will likely
result in only a few strong to severe storms that may propagate as
far east as the NM/TX border by early evening. The overall severe
threat is expected to remain isolated, precluding the need for a
watch.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34710551 35170586 35680611 36390582 36940551 37290510
            37470460 37450410 37130357 36620325 35960290 34930287
            34320307 34300453 34710551

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.