Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 550
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 6, 2021, 12:05 PM EDT for 8 counties in Florida. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 6, 2021, 12:05 PM EDT (16:05 UTC)
- Expired
- May 6, 2021, 2:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Brevard County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 712 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -59 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 989 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 77 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted.
073
ACUS11 KWNS 061606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061605
FLZ000-061800-
Mesoscale Discussion 0550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Thu May 06 2021
Areas affected...Central/Eastern FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 061605Z - 061800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Coverage of thunderstorms will likely increase over the
next few hours. Some of these storms could be severe. An upgrade to
Slight Risk is forthcoming for the Space Coast.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increasingly deep
cumulus over the past half hour or so across much of the central FL
Peninsula, south of a cold front extending from CGC eastward to OMN.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of this front
as the air mass continues to destabilize, resulting in moderate
instability this afternoon. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow
extends across northern portions of central FL (roughly the northern
half of MLB's CWA) appears strong enough to support storm
organization and the potential for a somewhat organized convective
cluster.
Given the expectation for increasing storm coverage and potential
for updraft organization, an upgrade to 15% wind/hail probabilities
is forthcoming in the 1630Z Convective Outlook for the Space Coast.
Convective trends will also be monitored closely for possible watch
issuance. Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts, although
hail and potentially even a brief tornado are also possible.
..Mosier/Grams.. 05/06/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27708024 27378089 27488126 28158157 28688187 29368183
29478097 27708024SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 3:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broward, Martin, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach | 114 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.