Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 544
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 5, 2021, 12:07 PM MDT for 8 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 5, 2021, 12:07 PM MDT (18:07 UTC)
- Expired
- May 5, 2021, 2:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Arapahoe County, CO, Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Lincoln County, CO
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1265 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 89 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
686
ACUS11 KWNS 051808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051807
KSZ000-COZ000-052030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Wed May 05 2021
Areas affected...east-central CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051807Z - 052030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-65 mph) and marginally severe
hail (1.0-1.25 inches in diameter) are possible with the stronger
storms later this afternoon (2pm-6pm MDT).
DISCUSSION...Visible and water-vapor satellite imagery show a
mid-level shortwave trough moving southeast through northern
portions of CO while a developing area of convection slowly
intensifies near the CO Front Range. The activity near Denver and
Ft. Collins as of 12pm MDT, will gradually move southeastward with
additional storm development likely to develop within a cumulus
field near the Palmer Divide. The latest forecast soundings
indicate convective temperatures have been breached with
temperatures in the middle 50s F. Upwards of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE is
also noted in the forecast soundings (Limon, CO in particular) with
an inverted-v profile and 35-kt effective shear. The steep lapse
rate profile will support the transfer of stronger gusts to the
surface once mature thunderstorm cores become established and a
marginally severe hail risk could accompany the strongest updrafts.
Given the overall marginally severe intensity/coverage of a few
severe storms, a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
anticipated.
..Smith.. 05/05/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37930371 39460472 40060415 39860333 39350213 38660183
37880263 37930371Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.