Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 540

May 4, 20215 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 4, 2021, 7:59 PM EDT for 5 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 61 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 4, 2021, 7:59 PM EDT (23:59 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2021, 9:00 PM EDT
In force
61 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 150

Counties Berkeley County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Marion County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 12.0 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2021-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 573 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 12:00Z on 2021-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 68 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
573 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-149 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1000 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
68 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

832 
ACUS11 KWNS 050000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042359 
SCZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Areas affected...portions of eastern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 150...

Valid 042359Z - 050100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 150
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms along the I-95 corridor of eastern South
Carolina will pose a risk for isolated damaging winds and marginally
severe hail over the next hour. A general weakening trend is
expected to continue.

DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, radar and satellite trends across the
Carolinas have shown a general weakening of ongoing convection. A
couple of severe storms remain east of I-95 in South Carolina.
Recent storm reports confirm these storms are still capable of
producing mainly severe wind gusts as they move off to the
northeast. SPC mesoanalysis shows mixed-layer inhibition of -100 to
-150 J/kg slowly increasing across the area with the loss of diurnal
heating and convective overturning from previous bands of storms.
Hi-res guidance also agrees with the observed weakening trend,
supporting moderate to high confidence that the severe weather risk
will continue to gradually decay early this evening and after
sunset. Until then, storms will remain capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts given an unstable (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and
weakly sheared environment.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   33607921 33267952 32897995 32968059 33288070 33728028
            34147942 34107917 33947904 33607921

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 4, 1:21 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAbbeville, Anderson, Oconee, Pickens114 min
May 4, 4:16 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAbbeville, Aiken, Bamberg, Barnwell, Berkeley, Calhoun and 29 more119 min
May 4, 4:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAiken, Bamberg, Barnwell, Calhoun, Chesterfield, Clarendon and 13 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.