Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 534

May 4, 202125 counties in Alabama; 11 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 4, 2021, 3:03 PM CDT for 25 counties in Alabama; 11 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 4, 2021, 3:03 PM CDT (20:03 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 144
All 36 counties

Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Cullman County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Marion County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2021-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2158 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2021-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 145 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2158 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
145 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
195 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.4
Supercell composite
7.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

376 
ACUS11 KWNS 042004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042003 
ALZ000-MSZ000-042200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Areas affected...Northeast MS...Central AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 144...

Valid 042003Z - 042200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 144 continues.

SUMMARY...Complex convective evolution is anticipated from
west-central MS through northern/central AL over the next few hours.
Strong winds appear most likely from east-central MS into
west-central AL

DISCUSSION...Strongest part of the ongoing convective line appears
to be progressing through central MS currently. However, radar and
surface observations reveal a remnant outflow boundary draped from
northeast MS across central AL and through west-central GA. Western
and central portions of this outflow boundary have stalled, with the
western portion appearing to now move back northward as an effective
warm front. Thunderstorms are ongoing north of the boundary across
much of AL, which could impede any northward motion. 

Given these mesoscale complexities, the overall convective evolution
as the line begins to interact with this boundary is uncertain.
Dewpoints are in the mid 60s across east-central MS and west-central
AL, decreasing to closer to 60 over east-central AL and west-central
GA. This is resulting is decreasing buoyancy from west to east,
introducing additional uncertainty with how far north and east
severe will occur with this convective line. Most probable area for
strong wind gusts is from east-central MS into west-central AL where
buoyancy remains strong. Elsewhere, convective trends will be
monitored closely, with at least some potential for a watch over
northern AL.

..Mosier.. 05/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33298967 34568841 34418565 33338552 32778636 32738867
            33298967

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 7:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bullock, Chambers, Coosa, Elmore, Lee and 4 more62 min
May 4, 5:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJackson, Lauderdale, Limestone, Madison5 hr
May 4, 7:31 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJackson, Lauderdale, Limestone, Madison89 min
May 4, 8:33 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Clarke, Dallas, Greene, Hale, Marengo and 4 more117 min
May 4, 9:03 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Cullman and 20 more117 min
May 4, 9:18 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton and 28 more7 hr
May 4, 2:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, Greene, Marengo, Sumter88 min
May 4, 3:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw and 20 more6 hr
May 4, 4:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw and 20 more89 min
May 4, 5:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Chambers, Coffee, Covington, Dale and 7 more85 min
May 4, 6:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Coosa, Elmore, Lowndes, Macon, Montgomery and 1 more65 min
May 4, 6:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarbour, Bullock, Chambers, Coffee, Covington, Crenshaw and 8 more6 hr
May 4, 10:52 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Amite, Bolivar, Claiborne, Franklin, Grenada and 9 more7 hr
May 4, 11:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma, DeSoto and 13 more2 hr
May 4, 12:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Claiborne, Copiah, Franklin, Hinds, Issaquena and 4 more89 min
May 4, 12:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma, DeSoto and 16 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.