Mesoscale Discussion 51

Issued

Feb 1, 2021, 7:13 AM EST (12:13 UTC)

Expired

Feb 1, 2021, 1:15 PM EST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Heavy snow

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

458 
ACUS11 KWNS 011213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011213 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-011815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 AM CST Mon Feb 01 2021

Areas affected...Northern New Jersey...Far Southeast New York...New
York City

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 011213Z - 011815Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall with rates of 1 to 2 inches per
hour is expected to develop from eastern Pennsylvania eastward
across northern New Jersey, Long Island and far southern New England
this morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an east to west
band of moderate to heavy precipitation forming from eastern
Pennsylvania eastward to south of Long Island. The band is
developing to the north of a deepening surface low, in response to
an increase in isentropic ascent due to the approach of an
upper-level low in the central Appalachians. In addition, increased
low-level flow and strong divergence aloft will aid the continued
development of moderate to heavy precipitation this morning.
Snowfall rates are expected to increase into the 1 to 2 inch per
hour range over the next few hours as the east-to-west band moves
slowly northward across eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey,
far southeast New York, Long Island and far southern New England.
Snowfall rates are forecast to gradually increase through the
morning approaching peak intensity in the early afternoon.

..Broyles.. 02/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40657291 40497387 40457494 40597579 40797591 41087588
            41377560 41477507 41567372 41667305 41817213 41887150
            41737111 41557103 41317121 40967192 40657291

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.