Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 481
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2021, 7:04 PM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas; Red Willow County, Nebraska. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 2, 2021, 7:04 PM CDT (00:04 UTC)
- Expired
- May 2, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 126
Counties Decatur County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Logan County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Red Willow County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1069 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -146 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1754 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 110 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 394 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 12.1
The text
As transmitted.
802
ACUS11 KWNS 030005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030004
KSZ000-NEZ000-030130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021
Areas affected...Portions of far southern NE into northwestern and
north-central KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...
Valid 030004Z - 030130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126
continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest severe/damaging wind threat should focus
across parts of far southern Nebraska into northwestern and
north-central Kansas over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Storms have recently congealed into a line across parts
of northwestern KS and far southern NE along a surface cold front.
Current expectations are for this line to surge east-southeastward
this evening, where MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, 35-40 kt of deep-layer
shear, and minimal MLCIN should support continued storm organization
and intensity in the short term. Isolated large hail will remain a
concern with any supercell embedded within the line. But, scattered
severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph will likely be the main
severe threat in the next 1-2 hours across northwestern into
north-central KS given the increasingly linear nature of the
convection and the favorably mixed boundary layer supporting
efficient downdraft accelerations.
..Gleason.. 05/03/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39180149 40190067 40149989 39869914 39479906 39139920
38589968 38480054 38640118 39180149SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 8:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ellis, Finney, Ford, Gove, Graham, Gray and 13 more | 84 min |
| May 2, 10:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Ford and 9 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.