Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 482

May 2, 202119 counties in Kansas; 11 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2021, 8:36 PM CDT for 19 counties in Kansas; 11 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2021, 8:36 PM CDT (01:36 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2021, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 84 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 126

All 30 counties

Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Smith County, KS, Trego County, KS, Adams County, NE, Butler County, NE, Clay County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Seward County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 157 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1069 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -146 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1754 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 110 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 394 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 12.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

415 
ACUS11 KWNS 030136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030136 
NEZ000-KSZ000-030300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

Areas affected...Portions of western/central KS and southern into
east-central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...

Valid 030136Z - 030300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe/damaging winds will likely continue this
evening in and near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126. Isolated large
hail also remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms have grown upscale into an arcing line from
southwestern into west-central KS, continuing into southern and
east-central NE. As this convection moves east-southeastward this
evening, it will encounter around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and weak
MLCIN. The 00Z sounding from DDC observed a well mixed boundary
layer with steep low and mid-level lapse rates. A 25-30 kt
south-southeasterly low-level jet should support continued storm
organization, with scattered severe/damaging winds mainly in the
60-70 mph range the primary threat in the short term. The strong to
severe convection in southern/east-central NE has remained along a
cold front, with occasional large hail reported. This activity is
not expected to move off the front very quickly this evening, which
should keep the overall severe hail/wind threat fairly isolated with
northward extent. The greatest severe wind risk should focus across
parts of western/central KS over the next hour or two where the
greatest instability is present.

..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37120105 37910085 38650101 39510009 39710009 40519947
            40719841 41189746 41259706 40819714 40569761 39869844
            39089904 38149931 37469955 37070007 37050070 37120105

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 2, 7:04 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Decatur, Gove, Graham, Logan, Norton, Phillips and 4 more	86 min
May 2, 10:26 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Ellsworth, Ford and 9 more	94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.