Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 479
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2021, 5:26 PM CDT for 38 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 2, 2021, 5:26 PM CDT (22:26 UTC)
- Expired
- May 2, 2021, 6:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 46 counties
Barton County, KS, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Logan County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Smith County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Dundy County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Webster County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -668 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1278 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 199 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 207 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
114 ACUS11 KWNS 022227 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022226 KSZ000-NEZ000-022330- Mesoscale Discussion 0479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021 Areas affected...Portions of western/central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 022226Z - 022330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat, including the potential for significant severe wind gusts, will likely continue to increase early this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued. DISCUSSION...Convection has recently begun to form along a surface front in north-central KS as low-level convergence gradually increases late this afternoon. Additional robust storm development will likely occur/form along the KS/CO border and subsequently spread eastward. As this activity encounters increasing low-level moisture and rather well mixed airmass, damaging/severe wind gusts will likely become the main threat very quickly. Isolated large hail may also occur. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer and convection likely to focus along the surface front and grow upscale quickly, significant severe wind gusts appear possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued soon to address this increasing threat. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/02/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 40290201 40299797 37809794 37750198 40290201
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2, 3:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Greeley, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan and 4 more | 90 min |
| May 2, 5:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Cheyenne, Decatur, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth and 34 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.