Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 431

April 24, 20219 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 24, 2021, 11:42 PM EDT for 9 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 24, 2021, 11:42 PM EDT (03:42 UTC)
Expired
Apr 25, 2021, 1:15 AM EDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 111

Counties Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Echols County, GA, Glynn County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Ware County, GA

The radar

The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-04-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 64 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-04-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 275 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
64 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-157 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
850 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
275 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
358 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

363 
ACUS11 KWNS 250343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250342 
GAZ000-FLZ000-250515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Georgia and adjacent northern
Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111...

Valid 250342Z - 250515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated storm or two could still intensify, mainly
near and north of the  northeastern Florida/Georgia border vicinity
through about 1 AM EDT, posing a risk for locally damaging wind
gusts or perhaps a tornado.  An additional watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...There has been some continued veering of a fairly broad
850 mb jet to an increasing west-southwesterly component.  Latest
Rapid Refresh suggests that the jet core is now in the process of
shifting east of the Georgia coast, but speeds remain on the order
of 40-50 kts, west-southwestward across northern Florida.  One
associated confluent zone remains a focus for vigorous convective
development, including supercell structures, roughly along an axis
east-northeast of Tallahassee, FL into the Brunswick, GA vicinity.

Aided by inflow of seasonably moist air emanating from the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico, beneath steep lower/mid tropospheric
lapse rates, activity still appears to be supported by moderately
large CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.  Further intensification
of one or two lingering storms, with perhaps some upscale growth,
still appears possible late this evening near/north of the
northeastern Florida/Georgia border vicinity, before large-scale
forcing diminishes further by around 05-06Z.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30918364 31298252 31508155 31018142 30588308 30508383
            30918364

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 24, 8:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 30 more4 hr
Apr 24, 9:02 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Bibb, Butts, Carroll, Clayton, Cobb and 32 more58 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.