Mesoscale Discussion 40

Issued

Jan 27, 2021, 2:04 PM EST (19:04 UTC)

Expired

Jan 27, 2021, 4:00 PM EST

In force

116 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Baker County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Duval County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Charlton County, GA

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

907 
ACUS11 KWNS 271904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271904 
FLZ000-GAZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Areas affected...Northern FL into far southeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271904Z - 272100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado
continues this afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely due to the
isolated nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...At 19Z, the thunderstorm cluster which earlier produced
a tornado in the Tallahassee area is moving eastward along the I-10
corridor in northern FL. This cluster has weakened slightly compared
to 1-2 hours ago, as it has moved into a slightly cooler and less
unstable airmass. However, effective shear of 40-50 kt remains more
than sufficient to support occasional upticks in convective
organization, and this cluster will continue to pose a threat of
isolated damaging wind and perhaps a tornado as it moves eastward
this afternoon and interacts with a surface boundary that is slowly
sagging southward out of far southern GA. Surface observations
indicate that slightly greater warming/destabilization has occurred
across northeast FL, which could support some severe threat to the
coast as the cluster continues eastward. However, given the
localized and generally marginal nature of the threat, watch
issuance remains unlikely.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

LAT...LON   30608294 30728259 30848183 30868153 30638147 30478142
            30218138 30138234 30108284 30198299 30408307 30608294

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.