Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 388
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 15, 2021, 10:56 AM CDT for 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 94 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 15, 2021, 10:56 AM CDT (15:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 15, 2021, 12:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 94 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 96
Counties Bandera County, TX, Concho County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Uvalde County, TX
The radar
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2593 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -44 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 634 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 169 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 338 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 4.6
- Supercell composite
- 21.4
The text
As transmitted.
873
ACUS11 KWNS 151556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151556
TXZ000-151730-
Mesoscale Discussion 0388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
Areas affected...portions of the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau
region of Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...
Valid 151556Z - 151730Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96
continues.
SUMMARY...Risk for primarily large hail continues across WW 96.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated supercells ongoing
across portions of WW 96 -- including portions of the Concho Valley
and Edwards Plateau region. Several left splits have occurred --
supported by a rather long/straight hodograph in the elevated
cloud-bearing layer.
The storms are occurring in an area of warm advection north of the
surface cold front, but with a slight weakening of the southerly
low-level jet forecast to occur with time, expect storm coverage to
remain isolated this afternoon.
Still, steep lapse rates and the aforementioned/sufficient shear
will continue to support risk for large hail with any storms which
do persist.
..Goss.. 04/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31530070 31590018 31229916 30959872 30129881 29179955
29129978 29030088 29190121 30010100 30560082 31530070SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 8:17 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Comal, Edwards and 13 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 15, 8:36 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Concho, Crockett, Edwards and 19 more | 8 hr |
| Apr 15, 12:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Coryell, Falls and 12 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 15, 4:55 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Brazoria, Burleson, Fort Bend, Harris, Lee and 4 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.