Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 364
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 10, 2021, 11:45 PM EDT for 29 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 10, 2021, 11:45 PM EDT (03:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 11, 2021, 1:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 29 counties
Beaufort County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Wake County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 87 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -38 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 919 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 79 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 121 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
275
ACUS11 KWNS 110345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110345
NCZ000-SCZ000-110545-
Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Areas affected...eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110345Z - 110545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Shallow convection may increase in coverage as it moves
across eastern North Carolina. Isolated strong gusts and/or brief
regions of low-level rotation cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of showers, perhaps soon to be
thunderstorms, is currently developing into southern NC, near a
surface trough. Dewpoints have been rising into the 63-65 F range,
contributing to up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Minor cooling aloft is expected over the next few hours, and some of
this convection could eventually produce lightning. If this area of
convection continues to deepen, it may eventually incorporate the
200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, which may enhance wind gust potential and/or
low-level rotation.
..Jewell/Grams.. 04/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 33797852 34187884 34627890 35157917 35457937 35757932
36057887 36177819 36187757 35997690 35717655 35147629
34567649 34637682 34457738 34187772 33837790 33797852Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.