Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 363

April 10, 202115 counties in North Carolina; 17 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 10, 2021, 5:35 PM EDT for 15 counties in North Carolina; 17 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 10, 2021, 5:35 PM EDT (21:35 UTC)
Expired
Apr 10, 2021, 7:30 PM EDT
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 32 counties

Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-04-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-04-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 69 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
706 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

190 
ACUS11 KWNS 102135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102135 
SCZ000-NCZ000-102330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Areas affected...parts of South Carolina into North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102135Z - 102330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible over
the next few hours, but the risk appears too low for watch
consideration.

DISCUSSION...An embedded lead wave is currently moving across
northern GA and into the western Carolinas, with a concentration of
shallow convection along the GA/SC border. Surface analysis shows
temperatures in the 70s F ahead of this feature, with low 60s F
dewpoints resulting in around 500 J/kg SBCAPE. Little lightning has
been noted as of late, due to relatively warm midlevel temperatures
and thus shallow nature of the convection.

Effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 exists over the western Carolinas,
along with 50 kt effective bulk shear. This may support weakly
rotating storms over the next few hours, before the boundary layer
stabilizes.

..Jewell.. 04/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34378009 33968062 33768118 33828169 33998235 34478263
            35068241 35578190 35808127 35928063 35778000 35317973
            34787992 34378009

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.