Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 302
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 28, 2021, 5:51 PM EDT for 52 counties in Georgia; 11 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 54 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 28, 2021, 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 28, 2021, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 54 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 63 counties
Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Echols County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Screven County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Turner County, GA, Ware County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC
The radar
The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1105 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 131 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 198 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
334
ACUS11 KWNS 282152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282151
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-282245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021
Areas affected...Southeast South Carolina...Southern Georgia...and
far Northern Florida
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 282151Z - 282245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated wind damage will continue this
evening, however, a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of storms stretching from
eastern South Carolina through central/southern Georgia into the
Florida Panhandle, and a few damaging wind reports have occurred.
Surface temperatures ahead of the line have warmed into the mid 80s
F, with dew point temperatures in the low 60s F. Instability remains
somewhat meager, though increasing to near 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE over
the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear remains sufficient for
organized convection (50+ kt effective bulk shear).
These environmental conditions suggest the line of storms should
continue tracking east-southeast before eventually moving offshore.
However, as storms continue tracking eastward they gradually move
away from the upper-level trough axis and will lose broader-scale
forcing. Thus, the threat for isolated wind damage will remain
present, particularly over southern portions of the region, but
watch issuance is not expected at this time.
..Karstens/Grams.. 03/28/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30548441 30898526 31868399 33148144 33787926 33147898
31158162 30578295 30548441SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2:25 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Catoosa, Dade, Fannin, Murray, Walker, Whitfield | 2 hr |
| Mar 28, 2:57 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chattooga, Dade, Walker | 93 min |
| Mar 28, 5:56 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Catoosa, Chattooga, Dade, Walker, Whitfield | 94 min |
| Mar 28, 6:10 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bartow, Catoosa, Chattooga, Cherokee, Dade, Dawson and 11 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 28, 8:29 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Cobb, Dawson, Forsyth and 8 more | 91 min |
| Mar 28, 10:14 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carroll, Cherokee, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas and 5 more | 61 min |
| Mar 28, 12:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baldwin, Bibb, Bleckley, Burke, Butts, Columbia and 34 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.