Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 302

March 28, 202152 counties in Georgia; 11 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 28, 2021, 5:51 PM EDT for 52 counties in Georgia; 11 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 54 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 28, 2021, 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC)
Expired
Mar 28, 2021, 6:45 PM EDT
In force
54 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 63 counties

Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Echols County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Long County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Screven County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Turner County, GA, Ware County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC

The radar

The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-03-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-03-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 131 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1105 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
198 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

334 
ACUS11 KWNS 282152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282151 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021

Areas affected...Southeast South Carolina...Southern Georgia...and
far Northern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282151Z - 282245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated wind damage will continue this
evening, however, a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of storms stretching from
eastern South Carolina through central/southern Georgia into the
Florida Panhandle, and a few damaging wind reports have occurred.
Surface temperatures ahead of the line have warmed into the mid 80s
F, with dew point temperatures in the low 60s F. Instability remains
somewhat meager, though increasing to near 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE over
the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear remains sufficient for
organized convection (50+ kt effective bulk shear).

These environmental conditions suggest the line of storms should
continue tracking east-southeast before eventually moving offshore.
However, as storms continue tracking eastward they gradually move
away from the upper-level trough axis and will lose broader-scale
forcing. Thus, the threat for isolated wind damage will remain
present, particularly over southern portions of the region, but
watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Karstens/Grams.. 03/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30548441 30898526 31868399 33148144 33787926 33147898
            31158162 30578295 30548441

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 28, 2:25 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatoosa, Dade, Fannin, Murray, Walker, Whitfield2 hr
Mar 28, 2:57 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChattooga, Dade, Walker93 min
Mar 28, 5:56 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatoosa, Chattooga, Dade, Walker, Whitfield94 min
Mar 28, 6:10 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBartow, Catoosa, Chattooga, Cherokee, Dade, Dawson and 11 more5 hr
Mar 28, 8:29 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Cobb, Dawson, Forsyth and 8 more91 min
Mar 28, 10:14 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Cherokee, Cobb, Coweta, DeKalb, Douglas and 5 more61 min
Mar 28, 12:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Bibb, Bleckley, Burke, Butts, Columbia and 34 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.