Mesoscale Discussion 274

Issued

Mar 26, 2021, 5:49 PM CDT (22:49 UTC)

Expired

Mar 26, 2021, 7:45 PM CDT

In force

116 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

885 
ACUS11 KWNS 262249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262249 
KSZ000-NEZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021

Areas affected...South-central KS into portions of northern/central
KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 262249Z - 270045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible this
evening, with the strongest storms capable of posing some threat of
hail and localized strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...At 2230Z, deepening cumulus and a few nascent attempts
at deep convection are ongoing across portions of northwest into
central KS, near and to the east of a surface low. Low-level
moisture remains limited across this region, but temperatures have
warmed into the 60s F near and to the south of a warm front located
near the NE/KS border, and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development is expected early this evening. 

The dry boundary layer in combination with a relatively low
tropopause will result in convection that is both somewhat
high-based and low-topped, which will tend to limit storm intensity.
However, steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures
aloft, in conjunction with effective shear of 30-40 kt, will support
some hail threat with the strongest updrafts. Isolated strong wind
gusts will also be possible with any storms in areas where stronger
boundary-layer heating and mixing occurred this afternoon. The
overall coverage and magnitude of the threat appears too limited for
watch issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 03/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39129935 39439975 39789996 40209983 40369961 40529881
            40329789 40159748 39779683 39399652 38449658 38179745
            38829857 39129935

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.