Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 271
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 26, 2021, 10:13 AM EDT for 10 counties in New York; 6 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 26, 2021, 10:13 AM EDT (14:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 26, 2021, 12:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Clinton County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Oswego County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Addison County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Washington County, VT
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -438 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 578 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 66 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 202 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 311 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
762
ACUS11 KWNS 261414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261413
VTZ000-NYZ000-261615-
Mesoscale Discussion 0271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021
Areas affected...parts of northern New York into Vermont
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261413Z - 261615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop by midday, and a
few could produce localized wind damage. A brief tornado will also
be possible.
DISCUSSION...A deep surface low will move rapidly east from Lake
Ontario across northern NY, with a trailing cold front and dryline.
Meanwhile, a warm front will continue to lift north across VT and
NH, along with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints.
Visible imagery shows areas of heating ahead of the cold front
across central NY, along with strong wind gusts across the warm
sector as the boundary layer mixes. Further clearing is possible
behind the warm front, which will allow for destabilization across
the remainder of northern NY, VT, and into NH.
Forecast soundings from various models indicate that sufficient
SBCAPE will develop to support at least isolated severe storms, with
damaging wind gusts most probable with storms forming ahead of the
low. A supercell or two will be possible as well, especially if
destabilization can occur near the warm front where low-level winds
may remain backed. Otherwise, the strong mixing points west should
result in mainly straight hodographs.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/26/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43487421 43127545 43187607 43507632 44057612 44377600
45087499 45057238 44427233 43927306 43487421SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 11:11 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer and 4 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 26, 1:33 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Saratoga, Washington | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.