Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2090

December 31, 202127 counties in Georgia; Abbeville County, McCormick County, South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 31, 2021, 6:40 PM EST for 27 counties in Georgia; Abbeville County, McCormick County, South Carolina. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 31, 2021, 6:40 PM EST (23:40 UTC)
Expired
Dec 31, 2021, 8:15 PM EST
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%
All 29 counties

Banks County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Dawson County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hall County, GA, Hart County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Madison County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Union County, GA, Walton County, GA, White County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Abbeville County, SC, McCormick County, SC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2021-12-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 12:00Z on 2021-12-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 134 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1182 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
134 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
234 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

523 
ACUS11 KWNS 312340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312340 
SCZ000-GAZ000-010115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021

Areas affected...portions of northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 312340Z - 010115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out over the next few
hours as weak supercells approach a stationary boundary and enhanced
low-level shear.

DISCUSSION...As of 2335 UTC, several showers and weak thunderstorms
showing transient low-level mesocyclones were identified across
portions of northern Georgia. Ongoing within a marginally unstable
airmass (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) ahead of a weak mid-level shortwave
trough, limited forcing for ascent and buoyancy will likely limit
the spatial coverage and longevity of ongoing convection. However,
enhanced low-level shear (0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2) in proximity
to a diffuse quasi-stationary front may continue to support a brief
tornado threat with any marginal supercells structures. Gradual
weakening of the convection should continue through the next several
hours with the loss of daytime heating. Given the uncertainty on the
coverage and longevity of the severe threat a weather watch is
unlikely.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/31/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   33618320 33718428 34008489 34758449 34898390 34798323
            34488260 34138227 33818223 33558237 33618320

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 31, 1:48 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Haralson, Polk57 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.