Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 2057
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 25, 2021, 5:44 PM EST for 4 counties in New Hampshire; 13 counties in New York; 6 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 25, 2021, 5:44 PM EST (22:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 25, 2021, 9:45 PM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Freezing rain
All 23 counties
Cheshire County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Essex County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 325 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1068 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 172 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 289 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
683
ACUS11 KWNS 252244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252244
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-260245-
Mesoscale Discussion 2057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CST Sat Dec 25 2021
Areas affected...Northern New York and southern Vermont and New
Hampshire
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 252244Z - 260245Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain will be possible this evening across
northern New York and southern Vermont and New Hampshire.
Accumulations up to 0.05" per hour are possible.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations from northern NY and southern
NH/VT have reported light freezing rain over the past hour, with
accumulations on the order of 0.03 inches per hour for some
locations. A shallow sub-freezing layer noted in recent surface
obs/RAP mesoanalysis is not being assimilated well into recent
guidance and may support freezing rain through the remainder of the
afternoon as light precipitation over northwest NY shifts east.
Given the weak nature of the ascent over the region (primarily
associated with a transient upper-level wave), precipitation rates
should not increase appreciably. Regardless, freezing rain
accumulations as high as 0.05 inches/hour may occur through late
afternoon and evening hours.
..Moore/Marsh.. 12/25/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 44077627 44467595 44457433 44287269 44027207 43337148
42837171 42817352 42827480 43137599 43447643 44077627SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 5:44 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack and 3 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.