Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 2052

December 21, 202110 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 21, 2021, 9:34 AM EST for 10 counties in Florida. It was in force for 26 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 21, 2021, 9:34 AM EST (14:34 UTC)
Expired
Dec 21, 2021, 10:00 AM EST
In force
26 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 568

Counties Charlotte County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Sarasota County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-12-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 123 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2021-12-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 260 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
123 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
533 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
340 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

129 
ACUS11 KWNS 211434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211434 
FLZ000-211500-

Mesoscale Discussion 2052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 AM CST Tue Dec 21 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the central/southern FL Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 568...

Valid 211434Z - 211500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 568 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado Watch 568 will likely be allowed to expire at the
top of the hour (15Z/10 AM EST).

DISCUSSION...Storms that moved from the eastern Gulf of Mexico over
parts of the western FL Peninsula earlier this morning have since
weakened. Low-level shear remains fairly strong to the south of a
warm front draped across the central FL Peninsula. But, the
thermodynamic environment appears fairly hostile for maintaining
strong to severe storms inland, with generally less than 500 J/kg of
MLCAPE available and poor mid-level lapse rates present per area 12Z
soundings. With a mid-level dry slot beginning to overspread this
region per recent water vapor satellite imagery, it appears unlikely
that additional robust convection will develop this morning.
Accordingly, Tornado Watch 568 will likely be allowed to expire at
the top of the hour (15Z/10 AM EST).

..Gleason.. 12/21/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   25758158 26478216 27328259 27628252 27638115 27128090
            25808085 25758158

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 21, 4:33 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry and 3 more2 hr
Dec 21, 5:22 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCCharlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry and 4 more5 hr
Dec 21, 8:01 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hendry, Lee and 2 more89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.