Mesoscale Discussion 2048

Issued

Dec 18, 2021, 1:50 PM CST (19:50 UTC)

Expired

Dec 18, 2021, 4:15 PM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

The Ft Rucker radar (KEOX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

829 
ACUS11 KWNS 181951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181950 
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

Areas affected...Portions of southern AL...the western FL
Panhandle...and far southwestern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181950Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong/damaging winds and perhaps a
brief tornado may continue through the rest of the afternoon. Watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased in coverage this
afternoon in a modest low-level warm advection regime across parts
of the central Gulf Coast states. Filtered diurnal heating and a
moist low-level airmass are contributing to around 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, although mid-level lapse rates remain relatively poor. The
VWP from KMOB shows low-level flow has veered to southwesterly, with
a nearly unidirectional wind profile through mid levels. Still,
there is slightly better veering/strengthening of the boundary-layer
winds with height per recent VWPs from KEVX/KEOX. Around 100 m2/s2
of 0-1 km SRH and 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear are supporting
modest storm organization. A low-topped storm in Coffee County AL
has recently displayed some signs of low-level rotation. Additional
convection across southern AL and the western FL Panhandle appears
less organized at the moment. But, there may be some potential for
isolated strong to damaging winds with the more robust updrafts as
storms spread east-northeastward through the rest of the afternoon.
A brief tornado may also occur given the marginally favorable
low-level shear. However, the already modest low-level winds are
expected to further weaken/veer over the next few hours. This
suggests that the overall severe threat will likely remain
isolated/marginal, and watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Gleason/Kerr.. 12/18/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30658837 30878832 31328725 31718643 32278582 32478515
            32318443 31928436 31428483 30928589 30648706 30628778
            30658837

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.