Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 2038
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2021, 9:03 PM CST for 20 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 117 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 15, 2021, 9:03 PM CST (03:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 15, 2021, 11:00 PM CST
- In force
- 117 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 565
Counties Barron County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Forest County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Washburn County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 176 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 29 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -469 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 505 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 689 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 687 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
373
ACUS11 KWNS 160303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160303
WIZ000-MIZ000-160500-
Mesoscale Discussion 2038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Areas affected...north-central Wisconsin
Concerning...Tornado Watch 565...
Valid 160303Z - 160500Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 565 continues.
SUMMARY...A severe wind risk may eventually push into northern
Wisconsin this evening, and a new watch may need to be considered
depending on storm trends.
DISCUSSION...The northern end of a long-lived squall line continues
to produce severe gusts and damage this evening, moving from
southeast MN into western WI. Currently, this section of the line is
oriented favorably (more perpendicular) to the winds aloft, aiding
storm speed and forward tilt.
Surface analysis shows that the line is near the warm front, with
temperatures cooling back into the mid 50s F northeast of the
storms. Very strong southerly winds exist just off the surface, and
this is likely aiding elevated instability north of the warm front.
Given the organization of the line of storms and continued warm
advection profiles, some wind threat may persist into north-central
or even northern WI this evening. Storm trends are currently being
monitored, and a new watch or extension may be needed.
..Jewell.. 12/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 44539108 45009184 45439204 45829194 46239113 46208943
46118888 45838846 45458844 44938849 44578864 44328917
44349054 44539108SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 7:11 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buffalo, Crawford, La Crosse, Trempealeau | 2 hr |
| Dec 15, 9:44 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Door and 22 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.