Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 2026
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 15, 2021, 6:42 AM MST for 6 counties in Colorado; 5 counties in New Mexico. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 15, 2021, 6:42 AM MST (13:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 15, 2021, 8:15 AM MST
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Bent County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Colfax County, NM, Harding County, NM, Mora County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM
The radar
The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 286 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -44 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1356 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 89 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 401 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 663 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
126
ACUS11 KWNS 151343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151342
COZ000-NMZ000-151515-
Mesoscale Discussion 2026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CST Wed Dec 15 2021
Areas affected...portions of northeast NM into southeast CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151342Z - 151515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Shallow convection may continue to enhance wind gust
potential along the eastward-surging cold front for a couple more
hours this morning across southeast CO and northeast NM.
DISCUSSION...A band of convection, including shallow thunderstorms,
along a cold front is quickly shifting east into portions of
southeast CO/northeast NM this morning. Background low/mid level
flow is already strong with 40-50 kt winds within a few hundred feet
of the surface noted in regional RAOBs and VWP data. Convectively
enhanced severe gusts have been noted at several observation sites
across north-central NM the past hour or so. While instability is
scant, strong gusts accompanied by convection may continue for a
couple more hours before convection weakens as it encounters a more
hostile environment amid increasing inhibition and an EML around
850-700 mb across the High Plains of eastern CO/NM. A watch is not
currently expected.
..Leitman/Grams.. 12/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36550308 36000362 35540431 35370529 35400550 35670569
36180556 36990541 37730545 38180535 38460504 38630461
38650356 38220313 37290296 36550308Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.