Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1990

December 10, 202124 counties in Illinois; 43 counties in Indiana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 10, 2021, 7:18 PM CST for 24 counties in Illinois; 43 counties in Indiana. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 10, 2021, 7:18 PM CST (01:18 UTC)
Expired
Dec 10, 2021, 8:45 PM CST
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch likely
Chance of a watch
95%
All 67 counties

Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Ford County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, McLean County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Bartholomew County, IN, Benton County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Grant County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warren County, IN, White County, IN

The radar

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 119 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 341 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
119 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-33 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
662 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
341 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
357 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

757 
ACUS11 KWNS 110119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110118 
INZ000-ILZ000-110245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Illinois and western and
central Indiana.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 110118Z - 110245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be needed within the next hour across
portions of Illinois and Indiana.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells has developed across
eastern Missouri and will move into central Illinois and eventually
Indiana during the overnight hours. Dewpoints are only in the mid to
upper 50s across Indiana and eastern Illinois at this time which
yields limited instability in the region. However, the strong
low-level jet will continue to advect low-level moisture northward
with the 00Z HRRR showing low 60s dewpoints advecting northward
ahead of the storms as they move into Indiana. This will yield
MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg. This instability combined with an
extremely favorable wind field (90 knots of 0-6 km shear and over
600 m2/s2 0 to 1 km SRH per ILX VWP) should continue a significant
severe weather threat through the overnight hours with primary
threats of damaging winds and tornadoes (a few of which may be
strong). A tornado watch will be needed within the hour to cover
this threat.

..Bentley/Grams.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   40478989 40848822 40988709 40408520 39518538 38778563
            38468670 38508801 38608876 40478989

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 10, 7:02 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Greene, Jersey, Macoupin, Madison, Monroe and 4 more58 min
Dec 10, 7:47 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCChampaign, Clark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland and 21 more8 hr
Dec 10, 8:53 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Coles and 21 more97 min
Dec 10, 9:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Coles, Cumberland, Edgar, Effingham, Shelby54 min
Dec 10, 10:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMassac96 min
Dec 10, 11:03 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Clinton, Edwards, Fayette, Franklin, Gallatin and 17 more5 hr
Dec 10, 11:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Clark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland and 24 more92 min
Dec 10, 6:21 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Jefferson and 4 more10 hr
Dec 10, 8:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHarrison85 min
Dec 10, 10:25 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Brown, Carroll and 50 more95 min
Dec 10, 11:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDearborn, Decatur, Delaware, Fayette, Franklin, Hamilton and 16 more67 min
Dec 10, 11:20 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Allen, Blackford, Carroll, Cass, Dearborn and 27 more6 hr
Dec 11, 1:46 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Brown, Daviess, Dearborn, Decatur, Delaware and 21 more59 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.