Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1929
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 3, 2021, 3:46 PM CDT for 30 counties in Texas. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 3, 2021, 3:46 PM CDT (20:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 3, 2021, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 30 counties
Aransas County, TX, Atascosa County, TX, Bee County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Brooks County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, Cameron County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Duval County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Hidalgo County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Jim Hogg County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kenedy County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Nueces County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Starr County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Webb County, TX, Willacy County, TX, Zapata County, TX
The radar
The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 36 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1028 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -17 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 834 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted.
102
ACUS11 KWNS 032047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032046
TXZ000-032215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Wed Nov 03 2021
Areas affected...South TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032046Z - 032215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A continued increase in thunderstorm coverage and
intensity is expected through the remainder of this afternoon and
early evening. An isolated stronger storm may produce hail and
gusty surface winds, but a watch is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop near, and
immediately north of, a southward-moving cold front extending from
near Houston to 50 miles northwest of Laredo TX at 2045z. Additional
storm development is expected over the next few hours, aided
primarily by frontal lift and an approaching shortwave trough in the
presence of MLCAPE averaging 500-1500 J/kg. Despite modest effective
shear, a couple stronger storms over the next few hours may be
capable of producing gusty surface winds and hail. The likelihood of
more than isolated coverage of severe-caliber wind/hail should
remain too low for watch issuance.
..Bunting/Hart.. 11/03/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 26949753 26089729 26119809 26409880 26819920 27619959
28230019 28530024 28939857 29039670 29339581 29359480
28939501 27859665 27219726 26949753Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.