Mesoscale Discussion 1927

Issued

Oct 29, 2021, 11:44 AM EDT (15:44 UTC)

Expired

Oct 29, 2021, 12:45 PM EDT

In force

61 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Currituck County, NC, City of Hampton, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Gloucester County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Northampton County, VA, York County, VA

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

012 
ACUS11 KWNS 291544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291544 
VAZ000-NCZ000-291645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Fri Oct 29 2021

Areas affected...extreme northeast North Carolina into southeast
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291544Z - 291645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Low-topped convection will pose a modest threat for a
couple of locally strong wind gusts and a brief tornado. At this
time the overall magnitude and spacial extent of any severe threat
does not appear to warrant a WW.

DISCUSSION...An arcing band of low-topped convection extends from
southeast VA into far northeast NC. Activity is developing along a
pre-frontal convergence band extending inland from the Gulf Stream.
A narrow corridor of weak instability is indicated with 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE along and south of a warm front that extends across
southeast VA. A relatively small window will exist for this
convection to become better organized and capable of producing a
couple of locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
where sizeable low-level hodographs exists across coastal NC and
southeast VA. The inland advance of the warm sector will remain
limited, keeping the spatial extent of the threat relatively small.

..Dial/Hart.. 10/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON   37777595 36187514 35757570 36687623 37727711 37777595

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.