Mesoscale Discussion 1868

Issued

Oct 15, 2021, 10:44 PM EDT (02:44 UTC)

Expired

Oct 16, 2021, 12:45 AM EDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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167 
ACUS11 KWNS 160245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160244 
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-160445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Areas affected...northern and northeast KY...southwest and southern
OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 160244Z - 160445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible tonight owing to
organized thunderstorms episodically intensifying in a moist, weakly
unstable, but strong deep-layer shear environment.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of thunderstorm clusters
over southeastern IN and central KY as of 0240z.  This activity is
located on/near the cold front.  Water-vapor imagery shows a
mid-level vorticity maximum located over the Ozarks this evening,
and this feature will continue to approach the OH Valley tonight as
large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening mid- to high-level
flow overspread the region.  

The 00z Wilmington, OH raob showed a moist boundary layer but poor
lapse rates and only meager MUCAPE (200 J/kg).  It was noted that
recent RAP forecast soundings appeared too aggressive with MUCAPE
for southwest OH compared to the 00z raob and SPC mesoanalysis. 
While it seems probable that this activity will be somewhat limited
in overall intensity, an isolated risk for damaging gusts could
develop with any more organized/persistent storm structures late
this evening into the early overnight.

..Smith/Guyer.. 10/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   39018492 39638343 39578266 38968225 38128282 37828420
            37588499 38118526 39018492

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.