Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1808

October 7, 2021Bay County, Gulf County, Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 7, 2021, 6:45 AM CDT for Bay County, Gulf County, Florida. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 7, 2021, 6:45 AM CDT (11:45 UTC)
Expired
Oct 7, 2021, 7:45 AM CDT
In force
60 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-10-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 111 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2021-10-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 117 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
111 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
837 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
117 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
128 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

324 
ACUS11 KWNS 071145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071145 
FLZ000-071245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021

Areas affected...Central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071145Z - 071245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado is possible this morning across the
central FL Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Sporadic rotation has been noted in a few cells
embedded within ongoing cluster of showers and thunderstorm in the
ECP vicinity of the western FL Panhandle. The strongest rotation
appears to be occurring as the shallow cells ahead of the cluster
encounter the southeastward surging outflow. Instability is modest,
but the low-level air mass is very moist and low-level shear will be
locally enhanced by the meso-low resulting from the prolonged
showers and thunderstorms. As a result, this overall pattern of
interaction between cells ahead of the outflow may continue to
result in a threat for a brief tornado or two. Isolated and brief
nature of the threat will preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Grams.. 10/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   29978570 30168586 30398561 30368517 30088473 29748489
            29668532 29978570

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.