Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1795
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 1, 2021, 4:12 PM MDT for 5 counties in New Mexico; 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 1, 2021, 4:12 PM MDT (22:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 1, 2021, 5:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 24 counties
Chaves County, NM, Curry County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Brewster County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crane County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Loving County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Terry County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 133 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -141 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 574 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -13 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
857
ACUS11 KWNS 012212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012212
TXZ000-NMZ000-012345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1795
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Fri Oct 01 2021
Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012212Z - 012345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated storms may continue to pose a risk for severe
hail for a few more hours this evening, however, watch issuance is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a few isolated storms have
developed over parts of southeast New Mexico, with MESH core values
approaching 1-1.5 inches in the strongest cells. This activity is
occurring along the western periphery of a weak instability axis,
characterized by MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, which is collocated beneath a
closed upper-level low coincident with cool mid-level temperatures
(-15 C at 500 mb) and modest deep-layer shear (35-40 kt effective
bulk shear). This environment should continue to favor robust yet
somewhat transient updrafts capable of producing severe hail for a
few more hours this evening before gradually diminishing with the
loss of surface heating. Given the isolated nature of the threat,
watch issuance is unlikely for the region.
..Karstens/Hart.. 10/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 29740330 30460423 32010474 33580459 34730396 35170283
34120220 32040203 30450232 29740330Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.