Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1793
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 30, 2021, 3:01 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 30, 2021, 3:01 PM CDT (20:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 30, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 511
Counties Brewster County, TX, Coke County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Culberson County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1726 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -108 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1297 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 8 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
882
ACUS11 KWNS 302002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302001
TXZ000-302200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Thu Sep 30 2021
Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Texas into parts of the Texas
South Plains
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511...
Valid 302001Z - 302200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 511
continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to develop
through 4-6 PM CDT, posing a risk for large hail, particularly
across areas south through east of Fort Stockton.
DISCUSSION...The surface cold front has advanced southward into the
the Pecos Valley and through much of the Texas South Plains, with
widely scattered strong thunderstorm development ongoing along it
and across the higher terrain of southwestern Texas. A further
increase in coverage of storms appears probable through 21-23Z,
supported by peak late afternoon boundary-layer instability.
Latest Rapid Refresh output suggests that there has been sufficient
strengthening of southwesterly mid/upper flow across the northern
Mexican Plateau into southwest Texas to contribute to moderate to
strong deep-layer shear across and southeast through east of the
Davis Mountains vicinity. One or two sustained supercells may
develop across this region, posing the most prominent risk for large
hail.
..Kerr.. 09/30/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30700289 31260238 31660193 32050137 32470036 32089924
30330157 29640298 29430394 30370463 30900528 31610512
31660424 30730378 30700289SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 10:38 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brewster, Coke, Crane, Culberson, Ector, Fisher and 18 more | 3 hr |
| Sep 30, 12:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Borden, Brewster, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Fisher and 16 more | 8 hr |
| Sep 30, 6:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crockett, Irion, Reagan, Terrell, Tom Green | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.