Mesoscale Discussion 1788

Issued

Sep 28, 2021, 3:21 PM CDT (20:21 UTC)

Expired

Sep 28, 2021, 4:45 PM CDT

In force

84 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

101 
ACUS11 KWNS 282022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282021 
TXZ000-OKZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1788
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Areas affected...A large portions of Texas and far southwest
Oklahoma.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282021Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible
this afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A broad area of thunderstorms has developed across much
of central Texas to near the Red River. These storms have lacked any
real organization and no severe reports or warnings have been
received/issued thus far. VWPs across most of Texas show a very weak
wind profile in the lowest 6 km which explains the lack of storm
organization. Therefore, while an isolated severe report is possible
in this region due strong instability with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
the lack of shear should keep most storms below severe limits.

Farther southwest, there may be a better chance for a few reports of
large hail and/or severe winds across southwest Texas. Slightly
stronger mid-level flow has overspread this region (30-35 kts per
KSJT VWP) which has led to increased shear around 25 to 30 kts.
Therefore, storms which move off the higher terrain in Mexico and
cross into Texas, or any additional development in the region, will
have a better chance for organization than the storm activity
farther northeast and thus a better chance for an isolated severe
threat.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 09/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   29810231 30190183 30760099 31250071 32240104 32880126
            35070002 35049923 34269735 32939629 31589662 29969798
            28660057 29430123 29680188 29810231

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.