Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1766
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 17, 2021, 5:08 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 17, 2021, 5:08 PM CDT (22:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 17, 2021, 7:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 21 counties
Clark County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Ness County, KS, Rush County, KS, Seward County, KS, Trego County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Collingsworth County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 326 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -373 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1512 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 372 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
209
ACUS11 KWNS 172209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172208
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-
Mesoscale Discussion 1766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021
Areas affected...West-central/Southwest Kansas...Western
Oklahoma...Eastern Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 172208Z - 180045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is expected to develop over the
next few hours from west-central Kansas southward into the eastern
Texas Panhandle. The threat should remain too isolated for watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Goodland shows
thunderstorms developing in northern Kansas to the north of a front
extending east-northeastward across north-central Kansas. The front
also extends southward into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
Surface dewpoints are currently in the lower 60s F to the east of
the front where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range by the RAP. Additional convection has developed on the
southwestern end of the strongest instability just to the south of
Dodge City. This convection may gradually strengthen early this
evening as low-level convergence becomes enhanced along and to the
east of the front. New thunderstorms may also develop over the next
1 to 2 hours further south in the eastern Texas Panhandle. In
addition to the instability, RAP forecast soundings early this
evening show directional shear throughout the low to mid-levels with
0-6 km shear around 25 kt. This may be enough for marginally severe
storms capable of hail and strong gusty winds. The threat should
persist for a few hours this evening but will likely remain too
marginal for weather watch issuance.
..Broyles.. 09/17/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 37420101 38370076 38970018 39179975 39179946 39009898
38769893 38119945 37619966 36679979 35049975 34800037
35020082 35470095 36420109 37420101Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.