Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1751

September 14, 20218 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 14, 2021, 7:06 PM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 14, 2021, 7:06 PM CDT (00:06 UTC)
Expired
Sep 14, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 500

Counties Barton County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-09-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1275 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-09-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -22 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1275 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-86 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1548 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

132 
ACUS11 KWNS 150006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150006 
KSZ000-150130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern into south central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 150006Z - 150130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms posing a risk for
severe hail and locally strong wind gusts may linger into the 8-9 PM
CDT time frame.

DISCUSSION...A zone of differential surface heating, beneath the
periphery of the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air,
has provide the focus for isolated intense thunderstorm development
late this afternoon.  With relatively moist easterly low-level flow
to the cool side of this front contributing to moderately large CAPE
and strong deep layer shear, a splitting supercell formed to the
east of Dodge City.  The remnants of this activity have been slowly
propagating north/northeastward and south-southeastward within
rather modest (around 20 kt) westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow,
and may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong
surface gusts for another hour or two.

..Kerr.. 09/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38279932 38559870 38019755 37419742 37189855 37459930
            37789975 38279932

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.