Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1719

September 8, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 8, 2021, 9:25 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 8, 2021, 9:25 PM EDT (01:25 UTC)
Expired
Sep 8, 2021, 11:00 PM EDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 491
All 22 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Hunterdon County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Pike County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2021-09-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 619 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2021-09-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 211 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
619 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
807 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
211 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
225 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
3.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

313 
ACUS11 KWNS 090125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090125 
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-090300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Areas affected...Eastern PA...Northern NJ...Southern
NY...Northwestern CT...Western MA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...

Valid 090125Z - 090300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues with storms this evening.

DISCUSSION...Broken line of strong/severe convection continues to
advance east at roughly 25kt. This activity is supported aloft by
strengthening mid-level flow ahead of Great Lakes/OH Valley upper
trough. Wind profiles continue to favor organized line
segments/bow-type structures, the primary concern being with line
segments oriented more north-south/perpendicular to the mean flow.
One such feature has formed over south-central PA and is tracking
east-northeast into western York County. If this storm maintains its
current track/movement, it will approach southwestern portions of
ww491 around 0330z.

..Darrow.. 09/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40187644 42477414 42477258 40187492 40187644

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 9, 4:12 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
Sep 8, 10:42 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEssex, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Union and 1 more2 hr
Sep 8, 8:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Lancaster, York4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.