Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1706
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 7, 2021, 1:09 PM MDT for Doña Ana County, Luna County, Otero County, New Mexico; El Paso County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 7, 2021, 1:09 PM MDT (19:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 7, 2021, 3:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Doña Ana County, NM, Luna County, NM, Otero County, NM, El Paso County, TX
The radar
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 32 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 810 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -123 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1993 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
025
ACUS11 KWNS 071910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071909
NMZ000-TXZ000-072145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Tue Sep 07 2021
Areas affected...Southern NM and far West TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071909Z - 072145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated 50-65 mph outflow gusts will be possible from
about 20-00z as storms form over the mountains and move
southwestward, but a watch appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus are deepening over the Sacramento Mountains as
of 19z, and water vapor imagery shows a subtle midlevel perturbation
moving west-southwestward over southeast NM. Boundary-layer
dewpoints in the low 50s and surface temperatures warming into the
low 90s F are resulting in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and diminishing
convective inhibition, which suggests that the cumulus are the
precursor to storm initiation in the next 1-2 hours. Widely
scattered storms are expected to move west-southwest off the higher
terrain in response to 30-40 kt northeasterly midlevel flow around
the periphery of the midlevel high over the Great Basin. Steep
low-level lapse rates and DCAPE greater than 1500 J/kg will support
isolated 50-65 mph outflow winds with downbursts, while the moderate
buoyancy and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt will favor somewhat
organized cells. Given the expectation for widely spaced storms, a
watch appears unlikely.
..Thompson/Hart.. 09/07/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32470784 33090622 33140600 33030588 32820587 32640570
32480537 32380501 32230491 31960494 31660513 31340571
31400620 31750666 31630803 31350830 31320862 31590870
32010849 32470784SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2:42 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hemphill | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.