Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1660
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 31, 2021, 7:59 AM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 31, 2021, 7:59 AM CDT (12:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 31, 2021, 9:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 21 counties
Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Platte County, MO
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 986 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -109 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1015 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 94 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted.
611
ACUS11 KWNS 311259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311259
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-311400-
Mesoscale Discussion 1660
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021
Areas affected...Northeast KS and northwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 311259Z - 311400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong-damaging gusts may occur in the next 1-2
hours across northeast KS/northwest MO, but storms are expected to
weaken by mid morning and a watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of overnight storms persists this morning,
moving southeastward from southeast NE into northeast KS and
northwest MO. The storms have been focused atop the outflow from
earlier convection across northern MO, where lift is stronger.
However, buoyancy is modest and vertical shear weakens with
southward extent (away from the MCV near the MO River), so the
storms are not expected to maintain intensity for very long this
morning. There will be a threat for isolated strong-damaging gusts
for another hour or two this morning, but the overall expectation is
for the storms to weaken and that a severe thunderstorm watch is not
necessary.
..Thompson.. 08/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40359490 40139414 39399401 38929436 38849536 39009615
39509674 39789658 40039545 40359490SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 3:02 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Holt, Nodaway, Worth | 118 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.