Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1601

August 25, 2021Lyon County, Plymouth County, Sioux County, Iowa; Boyd County, Knox County, Nebraska; 8 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 25, 2021, 3:02 PM CDT for Lyon County, Plymouth County, Sioux County, Iowa; Boyd County, Knox County, Nebraska; 8 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 25, 2021, 3:02 PM CDT (20:02 UTC)
Expired
Aug 25, 2021, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Lyon County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Boyd County, NE, Knox County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2021-08-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2021-08-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -140 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1403 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-140 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

124 
ACUS11 KWNS 252003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252002 
IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

Areas affected...northeast Nebraska...southeast South Dakota and
northwest Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 252002Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A small storm cluster along the southeast South Dakota /
northeast Nebraska border may produce a few locally strong wind
gusts and some hail next couple hours. Threat does not appear
sufficient to warrant a WW.

DISCUSSION...This afternoon a small storm cluster is situated along
the NE/SD border moving east at around 40 kt. Sub-severe wind gusts
up to 45 mph have been reported. Activity is developing above a
stable near-surface layer within a weak warm advection regime and
updrafts based around 700 mb. Near-surface temperatures are modestly
warmer with larger temperature / dewpoint spreads downstream of the
storms, suggesting a somewhat greater threat for wind gusts might be
realized. Also steep mid-level lapse rates, moderate instability and
up to 45 kt effective bulk shear may support some threat for hail.
There is some chance the updrafts could become rooted in the surface
layer farther downstream. However, degree of surface-based
convective inhibition associated with a warm layer aloft lowers
confidence in this scenario and how long storms will persist.
Nevertheless, at least for the next couple hours, activity may
remain capable of producing a few strong gusts and hail as it
continues east.

..Dial/Kerr.. 08/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   43139898 43509786 43569590 42739579 42559869 43139898

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 24, 11:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Dodge, Douglas, Polk, Sarpy, Saunders and 1 more117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.