Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1598

August 24, 20218 counties in Illinois; 10 counties in Indiana; 5 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 24, 2021, 8:14 PM CDT for 8 counties in Illinois; 10 counties in Indiana; 5 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 24, 2021, 8:14 PM CDT (01:14 UTC)
Expired
Aug 24, 2021, 10:15 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 23 counties

Grundy County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Knox County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Will County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Elkhart County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Lake County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Newton County, IN, Noble County, IN, Porter County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI

The radar

The Chicago radar (KLOT), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-08-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2737 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-08-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2737 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1274 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

445 
ACUS11 KWNS 250114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250114 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-250315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1598
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Tue Aug 24 2021

Areas affected...Northern IL...Northern IN...Southwest Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250114Z - 250315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/severe wind gusts are possible the next few
hours as convection propagates southeast. Severe thunderstorm watch
is not currently warranted.

DISCUSSION...Multi-faceted complex of storms that originated over
the upper MS Valley earlier today has progressed southeast and
currently extends along a corridor from southwest lower MI-northwest
IN-northern IL. Severe wind gusts were more common with this
activity across portions of IA/northern IL late this afternoon, but
have recently waned in intensity with many storms now producing
gusts on the order of 35kt. This elongated corridor of convection is
propagating southeast at roughly 20-25kt and should continue for the
next few hours as sufficient cold pool trails the leading storms.
Given the generally sub-severe wind reports, at this time a new
severe thunderstorm watch is not warranted.

..Darrow/Bunting.. 08/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40919043 41388837 41768675 42378558 42168455 41418522
            40528954 40919043

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 25, 4:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBureau, Champaign, Clark, Coles, DeWitt, Douglas and 28 more88 min
Aug 25, 11:46 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clay, Dearborn, Decatur and 27 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.