Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1534
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 16, 2021, 1:28 PM CDT for 22 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2021, 1:28 PM CDT (18:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 16, 2021, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 22 counties
Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 38 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 894 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -75 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1213 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
716
ACUS11 KWNS 161829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161828
TXZ000-NMZ000-162030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021
Areas affected...Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161828Z - 162030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the afternoon. A few instances of damaging wind and/or hail will be
possible, but storms will likely remain too transient and
disorganized for a robust severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along a southwestward
propagating outflow boundary across the northern TX Panhandle.
Additional isolated storms are deepening within a growing cumulus
field that has developed along a diffuse trough axis. Weak flow over
the region, as sampled by the KAMA VWP, suggests that storms will
likely remain disorganized and outflow-driven. Reflectivity trends
from the cluster north of Amarillo, TX support this idea as
northward propagating storms are outpaced by the southwestward
moving outflow. However, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is supporting a few
stronger updraft pulses capable of severe hail (as indicated by
recent MRMS vertically integrated ice trends). Additionally, gradual
diurnal warming ahead of the outflow across the central and western
Panhandle is allowing low-level lapse rates to steepen to near 8
C/km, which may support sporadic damaging downburst winds. Overall,
the severe threat will most likely remain too isolated and transient
for a watch.
..Moore/Hart.. 08/16/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35160312 35540278 35920194 36050129 35820038 35420012
34860013 34440046 34070114 33870202 33800267 33970302
34560325 35160312Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.