Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 153
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 10, 2021, 11:41 PM CST for 13 counties in Kansas; 5 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 10, 2021, 11:41 PM CST (05:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 11, 2021, 1:45 AM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Noble County, OK, Osage County, OK
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 212 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -52 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1708 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 62 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 202 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 3.2
The text
As transmitted.
693
ACUS11 KWNS 110542
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110541
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-110745-
Mesoscale Discussion 0153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021
Areas affected...northern Oklahoma/southeastern Kansas and into
southwestern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110541Z - 110745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few instances of hail near or exceeding 1" in diameter
may occur into the overnight hours. Limited coverage anticipated
suggests that a WW will likely not be required.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms increasing in coverage
over portions of southeastern Kansas, and some echoes now indicated
farther south into Oklahoma. The convection is occurring with a
zone of low-level warm advection, within a thermodynamic environment
featuring steep low- to mid-level lapse rates, above a boundary
layer of increasing stability with northward extent -- particularly
north of the warm front lying from northwestern Oklahoma to
west-central Missouri.
Fairly strong southwesterlies within the cloud-bearing layer are
yielding sufficient shear for organized storms, when considered in
conjunction with the degree of CAPE. As such, a few stronger storms
-- which may become locally capable of producing large hail -- may
evolve, before convection spreads eastward and weakens later into
the overnight hours.
..Goss/Hart.. 03/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36429830 37519728 38129563 38239456 38029422 37289486
36329703 36069781 36189820 36429830Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.