Mesoscale Discussion 1529

Issued

Aug 15, 2021, 6:05 PM CDT (23:05 UTC)

Expired

Aug 15, 2021, 7:30 PM CDT

In force

85 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

626 
ACUS11 KWNS 152306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152305 
KSZ000-NEZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021

Areas affected...Central/northwest KS into southwest NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 152305Z - 160030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible for a
few hours this evening. Hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary
threats. Watch issuance is considered unlikely due to limited storm
coverage.

DISCUSSION...At 23Z, two intense thunderstorms are ongoing across
central/northwest KS; one across Trego County and the other (which
recently produced golfball-size hail) across Ellsworth County. Both
storms are located within a low-level moist axis noted within
surface observations and recent mesoanalyses, where MLCAPE has
increased into the 1500-2500 J/kg range. While low/midlevel flow is
rather weak, low-level southeasterlies veering to northwesterlies
aloft are supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt, sufficient to
support some updraft organization/rotation. 

Hail and localized downburst winds are expected to be the primary
short-term hazards. Sparse storm coverage and relatively slow storm
motions are expected to keep the severe threat generally isolated,
which will likely preclude the need for a watch. Additional isolated
development cannot be ruled out in the next 1-2 hours along the
northwest extension of the low-level moist axis into southwest NE,
though any threat in that area is expected to remain isolated as
well.

..Dean/Bunting.. 08/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38069955 38450060 39720114 39980122 41280159 41790104
            41740049 41360024 40219999 39879986 39239958 38999887
            38819768 38369761 37939771 37929854 38039935 38069955

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.