Mesoscale Discussion 1459

Issued

Aug 10, 2021, 12:12 PM EDT (16:12 UTC)

Expired

Aug 10, 2021, 2:45 PM EDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

904 
ACUS11 KWNS 101612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101612 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-101845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...northern WV...and
southwestern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101612Z - 101845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat may continue in the short
term with a small cluster of storms moving eastward. The overall
severe threat will probably remain too marginal for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A short line of storms are ongoing at 1610Z across
portions of eastern OH. This convection is being aided by a weak
shortwave trough present over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Both
low and mid-level winds appear relatively modest per recent VWPs
from KPBZ, but there is some strengthening of the flow through mid
levels. Recent radar imagery from KPBZ shows strong inbound
velocities occurring with this line in east-central OH. A small
corridor of damaging wind gusts should be the primary severe threat
in the short term. The longevity of this line as it moves into the
northern WV Panhandle and southwestern PA remains unclear, as
surface temperatures are still mostly in the 70s to around 80 with
fairly prevalent cloud cover. Less instability is also present with
eastward extent (MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg), so there may be some
tendency for this line to weaken in the afternoon as it moves across
the higher terrain of western/central PA and northern WV.
Regardless, uncertainty is higher than usual in storm evolution
across this region. For now, watch issuance appears unlikely, but
convective trends will continue to be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40048213 40438151 40978031 40997949 40547910 39807948
            39287965 39258078 39448201 40048213

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.