Mesoscale Discussion 1457

Issued

Aug 10, 2021, 12:39 AM CDT (05:39 UTC)

Expired

Aug 10, 2021, 2:45 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Graham County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Mitchell County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Russell County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Smith County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Dundy County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Red Willow County, NE

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

143 
ACUS11 KWNS 100540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100539 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-100745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1457
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Areas affected...Far Southwest/South-Central
NE...Northwest/North-Central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 100539Z - 100745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms along the western KS/NE border and across
north-central KS may pose a risk for isolated large hail and/or
damaging wind gusts. Additional storm development is possible, but
the overall severe coverage is expected to remain low enough to
preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a series of strong
thunderstorms extending from the far western KS/NE border
southeastward to just south of the central KS/NE border of Norton
and Graham Counties in north-central KS. The leading storm in Norton
and Graham Counties appears to have developed as a result of
warm-air advection atop the southward surging outflow attendant to
the pair of storms back farther west along the western KS/NE border.
Recent VAD data from DDC sampled the ongoing low-level jet well, and
the expectation is that that ongoing storms will persist, supported
by the warm and moist inflow attendant to the low-level jet. 

Additionally, the two storms back west along the western KS/NE
border have recently shown a bit more eastward motion. This
increased eastern motion may be a result of the convectively induced
vorticity maximum becoming more progressive under the influence of
the strong shortwave trough moving across the northern High Plains.
As a result, there is some potential for the downstream development
over Norton and Graham Counties to accelerate eastward as well.
Low-level stability should mitigate the overall potential of
damaging gusts reaching the surface, but a few stronger gusts  may
still be realized. Additional storm development could also occur
along the surging outflow. Steep mid-level lapse rates could result
in updrafts strong enough to produce hail.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39550189 40130220 40280119 40239902 39609752 38759859
            39340106 39550189

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.