Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1451
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 9, 2021, 12:50 PM CDT for 38 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 9, 2021, 12:50 PM CDT (17:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 9, 2021, 3:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 38 counties
Adair County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 226 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 210 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -38 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1127 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
428
ACUS11 KWNS 091751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091750
KYZ000-092015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Mon Aug 09 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091750Z - 092015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated strong/gusty wind threat should continue with
storms moving eastward this afternoon. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms is moving
eastward across central KY this afternoon. Low-level flow in the
boundary layer quickly veers to westerly and modestly strengthens to
around 30 kt at mid levels per recent VWPs from KLVX. About
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steepening low-level lapse rates with
continued daytime heating should allow for storms to persist into
eastern KY this afternoon. The lack of stronger mid-level flow will
likely limit overall storm organization and intensity. But,
strong/gusty outflow winds capable of producing mainly isolated tree
damage will be possible. Some signs of modestly enhanced outflow
winds have already been observed in recent velocity data from KLVX.
Regardless, the overall severe threat is expected to remain rather
isolated/marginal, and watch issuance is not expected.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/09/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 37138600 37228546 37498484 37938432 38238415 38438378
38368324 38058277 37368279 36858325 36688444 36708525
36848593 37138600Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.