Alert archive / Nevada / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1415
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 1, 2021, 11:24 AM PDT for Elko County, Lincoln County, White Pine County, Nevada; Beaver County, Iron County, Millard County, Utah. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 1, 2021, 11:24 AM PDT (18:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 1, 2021, 1:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Elko County, NV, Lincoln County, NV, White Pine County, NV, Beaver County, UT, Iron County, UT, Millard County, UT
The radar
The Cedar City radar (KICX), 164 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Las Vegas, NV (KVEF), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 260 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 680 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -99 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1983 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 27 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
091
ACUS11 KWNS 011824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011824
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-012000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021
Areas affected...portions of eastern Nevada into western Utah
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011824Z - 012000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may occur in association with the
stronger wet downbursts. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity this afternoon as convective temperatures are locally
being exceeded. Latest METAR observations show surface temperatures
climbing into the 80s across parts of the Great Basin into the Lower
Colorado River Valley as mostly clear skies (evident via visible
satellite) are allowing the boundary layer to destabilize. 18Z
mesoanalysis shows 7-8.5 C/km 0-3km lapse rates and 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE already in place, and with continued surface heating, up to 9
C/km low-level lapse rates and over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may become
achievable on a widespread basis.
Deep-layer vertical shear is lacking, suggesting that storm mode
should be short-lived single/multi-cellular. However, given
1.00-1.25 inch precipitable water values and aforementioned steep
low-level lapse rates in place, a couple of the more robust storms
(albeit brief) may support heavy enough storm cores to induce brief
but damaging (potentially severe) wind gusts through the afternoon.
Nonetheless, given the sparse and short-lived nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 08/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...
LAT...LON 36591538 39271589 41231545 41451453 41021348 39561295
38621289 37561321 37061378 36751422 36371484 36591538Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Nevada, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Utah, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.