Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1414
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 1, 2021, 12:09 PM CDT for 34 counties in Alabama; 41 counties in Georgia; 23 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 1, 2021, 12:09 PM CDT (17:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 1, 2021, 2:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 98 counties
Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Clay County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Baldwin County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Butts County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Harris County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Lee County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pike County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Schley County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Troup County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Upson County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Attala County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Covington County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Winston County, MS
The radar
The Birmingham radar (KBMX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1867 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -38 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 834 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 69 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
965
ACUS11 KWNS 011710
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011709
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011915-
Mesoscale Discussion 1414
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021
Areas affected...Central MS...Central AL...Central GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011709Z - 011915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected this
afternoon. A few storms may become strong enough to produce damaging
wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals an outflow boundary
extending southern AR eastward across central MS, AL, and GA. This
outflow boundary precedes the more baroclinic cold front to its
north. Visible satellite imagery shows increasingly deep cumulus
across much of the region ahead of the outflow boundary, with the
deepest cumulus currently in the vicinity of the small thunderstorm
cluster moving across east-central MS. Air mass downstream south of
the outflow boundary is characterized by temperatures in the upper
80s/low 90s, dewpoints in the mid 70s, and MLCAPE generally around
2000-2500 J/kg.
Expectation is for scattered thunderstorm development across the
region this afternoon. This area will be displaced south of the
stronger flow aloft, but ample moisture coupled with strong buoyancy
will promote strong updrafts capable of producing wet microbursts.
Overall threat is expected to remain low enough to preclude watch
issuance.
..Mosier/Grams.. 08/01/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32259041 33339013 33628904 33458749 33378551 33488439
33528376 33028307 31918320 31358698 31518988 32259041SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 11:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | DeKalb, Jackson, Lauderdale, Limestone, Madison | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.